Slow but sure...

...Jesse Salomon's lead in the Shoreline City Council Position 6 race continues to grow. It's now at 90 votes, with a margin over double that required to avoid an automatic recount.

I'll keep checking in on this till they're done down at King County Elections, but I'm ready to make a call.

Congratulations, Councilman-elect Salomon!

A significant step forward…

…for Shoreline City Council candidate Jesse Salomon, whose lead has increased to 77 votes and, more notably, whose leading margin has grown to .52%, raising it just above the mandatory recount threshold.

Assuming that margin holds or, as it has done every day this week, grows, Robin McClelland would still have the option of gambling a couple thousand dollars on a requested recount (the 15 cent per vote deposit would be returned if the outcome were reversed) though I have no hint of the likelihood that she'd do so.

As it happens, the Brilliant and Beautiful Bride of Upper Left and my ballots are among those verified but not counted, according to King County Elections, so there's at least two more to add to Jesse's total when they open the envelopes (or not...h/t N in Seattle)

If you're a King County voter, you can check the status of your ballot with the online Ballot Tracker.

Inch by inch...

...vote by vote, Shoreline City Council candidate Jesse Salomon's lead has grown to 49 votes. Still in mandatory recount territory, but the bigger his margin going into the second count, the better for him, and, from my perspective, for all of us here in town.

I'm not bold enough to call it yet, but it's starting to feel like a win.

Call him "Landslide" Jesse Salomon.

In the last close one I'm following, Jesse Salomon's lead in the Shoreline City Council Position 6 race has grown by by some 27% over yesterday's report.

In raw numbers, that's six votes, increasing his actual advantage to 28, about .2%.

Congratulations are probably best held for the recount outcome.

Cliffhanger report.

Ronald Wastewater Commissioner Arne Lind still trails challenger Bob Ransom by over 300 votes, and it's not likely they're out there, but in close elections, never give up is often good advice.

A good example of that is in the race for the open seat on the Shoreline City Council, where Jesse Salomon, after a run of bad news in earlier returns, has slipped a scant 22 votes ahead of Robin McClelland. When the election is certified, though, a scant lead is a sufficient lead.

Still reason to stay tuned...

An update…

…on our local cliffhangers. Both City Council candidate Jesse Salomon and Ronald Wastewater Commissioner Arne Lind have closed their deficits slightly in the latest report from King County Elections, but the lack of remaining votes makes them increasingly improbable victors.

In both cases I think my description of the local outcomes as a status quo election holds. Though Salomon was running for an open seat, his opponent, Robin McClelland, was positioned as the 'establishment' candidate, the representative of the current controlling faction (not party - as I've noted elsewhere, what we have is closer to uni-partisan than non-partisan government) at City Hall. That's not awful, really - as I've said, our local races are, for the most part, between well intentioned and generally liberally minded folks - but I was hoping this election might stir the pot just a bit, and it appears it won't.

Bob Ransom, Arne Lind's opponent in the sewer commission race, was pretty transparently the agent of that controlling faction. His campaign was based on putting himself out of office by transferring the responsibilities of the Commission to the city government. The notion isn't without merit, but I agree with Lind that it should be the result of an open debate and public vote, not the administrative shift that Ransom advocates.

There'll be another count tomorrow, and it will probably be pretty definitive in favor of McClelland and Ransom, which isn't the way I voted, but isn't enough to make me contact Canadian immigration, either.

The hard part.

The choices for King County Elections and the Port Commission are almost comically easy. The choices for our local city council are more difficult. That's actually a good thing.

Like our big neighbor to the south, "non-partisan" government in Shoreline tends to produce uni-partisan government. Happily, the party in question is the Democratic Party. As a result, both sides of local races usually feature folks of generally liberal outlook, although most of the municipal issues they contend with in office don't hinge on ideological division. Friends and allies, personal and political, tend to pop up on the endorsement lists of all the candidates, a sign, I suppose, that we're still a pretty small and surprisingly stable city. Most political choices come down to keeping the bad guys out or getting the good guys in. Not so much in Shoreline, where the options are all, or nearly all, qualified, compassionate, public-spirited neighbors.

If they're all good, some are better, and that discernment is the hard part. These are fairly low profile, low budget campaigns, so there's not a flood of paid media. You have to read the voter's pamphlet, check endorsement lists and candidate evaluations, attend candidate forums and, perhaps most importantly, answer the doorbell when it rings. Shoe leather can still win elections here. In fact, like the presidential primary voters in New Hampshire, folks hereabouts like to vote for people they've met.

I haven't met Jesse Salomon, who's running for an open seat on the Council, because I wasn't home when he dropped by, but the Brilliant and Beautiful Bride of Upper Left answered the door and came away favorably impressed. That's about all the recommendation I need. Jesse is a neighborhood activist, a public defender and my choice for Position 6. I can see a political future beyond the city for him if he wants it, but while we have the chance to enjoy his talents locally, we should take it.

Chris Eggen is running for re-election, and I'm supporting him again. I got to know Chris as a workhorse in the local Democratic Party, and he's been a workhorse on the Council. He deserves another term.

I admit to a general bias in favor of incumbents, absent some egregious reason for removal. There's no such reason with the incumbent in Position 4, but I'm supporting the challenger, Janet Way, just the same.

You can learn a lot about a politician from a campaign, and a lot more from the way they conduct themselves in office after they win. Sometimes you learn the most of all, though, after they lose. When Janet lost her re-election bid in the last cycle, she didn't retreat an inch from her energetic activism on behalf of environmental, cultural and historic preservation. She started a blog that's become the go-to source for local information about those issues and the sustainability-based economic growth and development that she champions (and some terrific wildlife photography!). She's continued to listen, to learn, and to teach in turn. She'll be an advocate for ideas and concerns that are too seldom part of Council discussions these days.

I'm voting for Janet, Chris and Jesse. If you're hereabouts, I hope you do, too.

Things got busy…

…at Records & Elections after I checked in Friday morning. By the close of filing, City Councilmember Chris Eggen had picked up a challenger, making all three races two-way contests. Meanwhile, the school board races filled up, with two of the three seats there being contested.

Since these are all non-partisan races and there are only two candidates per contest, they'll all move straight to the November ballot. That means it may take awhile for the campaigns to gear up and for the issues they're emphasizing to emerge, but it could get spirited in Upper Left's home town..

Like déjà vu all over again.

While I was basking in the glow of the suddenly departed great yellow orb, the deck chairs were being arranged for upcoming elections. It seems like everybody wants to be the Comeback Kid.

Down Olympia way, Denny Heck is gearing up to run in whichever Congressional district reapportionment puts him in. It's likely to be more favorable to him than the old 4th proved to be last time around, but if it's particularly more attractive to a Democratic candidate, there might be more than a couple of contenders.

When last seen, Laura Ruderman gave up her legislative seat for a statewide run for Secretary of State. She was one of the most credible candidates Democrats have put on the ballot for that office in recent years, but couldn't break the stranglehold Republicans seem to have established there. Now, if Jay Inslee gives up the seat for the Governor's race, she'll take a run at the 1st Congressional District. Living on the border of the 1st and 7th, I'm susceptible to redistricting and that may be the contest to determine my own personal future Congressman.

Of course, I'm perfectly happy with Jim McDermott as my Congressman, would just as soon see Jay stay put and build clout and, after the debacle of the Gregoire years, wouldn't mind if they'd just shutter the Governor's office for a few terms, but I suspect Laura's more likely to get her wish than I am to get mine. Just let me keep Jim, OK?

Locally, former Councilmember Janet Way is seeking to return to the Shoreline City Council. An advocate for both environmental and historic restoration and preservation in our community, Janet's also a friend and fellow blogger. She's a Democratic Party activist, too, and should find some institutional support from that direction (Our city government is officially non-partisan, but, like our big southern neighbor, uni-partisan's likely a better description.) The seat she's seeking this time is currently held by Doris McConnell, but the field's never defined till filing is closed. This could be one of the more interesting contests in our city's relatively short but spirited election history.

Meanwhile, it's filing week for a variety of local offices, which usually provides a few spills and thrills for political junkies. I'm off in search of news...

The morning after…

…the big double-drop at King County Records & Elections, Shoreline City Council candidate Shari Tracey's still holding on to 51% and a fraction. It was a lead too small to call just a day or two ago, but I'm satisfied that she's going to unseat incumbent Cindy Ryu. There's about a 44% turnout based on the votes already counted, and I don't imagine that's going to change by more than a point or two as late ballots are counted (I understand that everything on hand has been reported.)

That means from top to bottom, there were only two races that came out differently than my ballot. For Port Commission, Tom Albro defeated Max Vecich, not the ideal outcome but hardly as awful as it would have been had Rob Holland lost to the conservative ideologue David Doud. My nostalgic pick for County Assessor, Gene Lux, finished fifth in a field of five, but that wasn't a surprise and I felt perfectly comfortable with either of the front runners, Lloyd Hara and Bob Rosenberger, who had split Democratic endorsements and ultimately over 60% of the vote between them. Lloyd, a fixture in Democratic politics for decades, won, and that's fine.

Other than that, though, I called 'em all. I can't remember being so satisfied with an overall election outcome. Good on all y'all who voted the right way.

And they finally seem to have straightened out the mayoral mess in the big city down south. Good on them, too.

It's almost a wrap.

Tonight's results make at least a couple of my cliffhangers safe to call. I may be the last to admit it - I almost can't believe it - but Referendum 71 has opened a five point lead and looks sure to pass. My home state is the first in the nation to expand civil rights for gays and lesbians at the ballot box. That's something. Of course, it took a better than two to one vote here in King County to make it happen, but it happened. Huzzah!

In the local races I'm tracking, it's going to be Will Hall for Shoreline City Council Position 3, having expanded his lead by a couple hundred more votes overnight. The trend has been consistent enough to be convincing. I voted for Will, happily, but Patty Hale was a worthy candidate for the Council as well, a dedicated community volunteer and neighborhood activist. It's a shame she got caught up in controversy during the campaign, but it was a controversy of her own making because of her apparent inability to simply say "I was wrong" and get on with it when she was reprimanded for discussing her campaign with an English class while she was on the clock as their substitute teacher. I'm sympathetic to the value of student involvement but it seems to me that Patty was in a perfect position to cadge a couple of invites to speak to social studies classes as a candidate, off the clock. It didn't help that she didn't seem to understand the difference.

At any rate, Will comes with his own record of community involvement and relevant professional experience to boot. He picked up a late endorsement from the local Democrats after incumbent Councilmember and Party favorite Janet Way came in third in the primary. Janet, who I voted for then, endorsed him as well. I didn't use the Party sample ballot as a template for my own picks, but his willingness to identify with the Democratic Party, a requirement for the endorsement, does count as another point in his favor. Congratulations are in order and extended.

Challenger Shari Tracey continues to hold a slim lead over Position 5 incumbent Cindy Ryu, with a margin of about 400 votes. A margin of one, of course, is sufficient, and it seems that Shari will likely win. I'd like a bit more certainty than "likely," though. (Insert grumble about mail ballots and glacial counts here.) The replacement of Ryu, appointed to the essentially honorary position of mayor by the current Council, will be a major shift in the power center and culture of city government. Ryu, a Democratic State Committeewoman, is a local landlord and developer with close ties (she's on the board) to the Chamber of Commerce, where the ill-fated write-in effort against Keith McGlashan was spawned. Based on the vote totals, Keith appears to be the most popular politician in town this week. I see the election of Shari Tracey, which, though not yet written in stone is growing more likely by the day, as the neighborhoods giving notice that they don't like their city being run by the Aurora corridor business community. I think that's a healthy thing.

So, I'm down to one I won't call. Happily, I don't have a horse in that mayoral mess in the big city to the south. I'm sure Slog and Goldy can keep you up to date on that.

Yep, there were more results yesterday...

…but I was already on duty at the perfect tavern when they were released. After the second vote drop, the relative cliffhanger races that I'm tracking, R-71 and Shoreline City Council seats 4 and 5, are all near where they were after the first. That means my picks are still slightly, or slightly more, ahead. There's another drop in a couple hours with, hopefully, some more definitive reports. I'll hold my analysis until then.

Meanwhile, so far so good.

Brilliant prognosticator or influential pundit?

You make the call, but if current trends hold, my city council picks will go 4 for 4. At least two of those look pretty solid right now.

Keith McGlashan's was the only name on the ballot for Position 1, but there was an active write-in candidacy against him. That could have presented a couple of problems. Since no opponent was named, some voters might have skipped over the race, thinking their vote would have no influence. It was also the first write-in campaign conducted via our new vote by mail elections, and I wondered if voting at the kitchen table might make it easier for folks to write in an alternative choice.

Well, there was a drop-off, but it didn't accrue to the benefit of Keith's late-entry opponent. The well funded write-in campaign, beneficiary of a third-party smear via an anti-McGlashan independent expenditure, picked up less than 20% of the first ballot count, while Keith posted the highest vote total of any council candidate, despite a drop-off of more than 1000 votes for the Position 1 race.

The other one that looks done is in Position 7, where Chris Roberts holds a 57%/42% lead over incumbent Ron Hansen. Hansen brought some troubles to the race - his CPA license was suspended, then revoked because he didn't observe the conditions of the suspension, which led to his Municipal League rating being revoked, which, well, it was a messy business. The real credit should be given to Roberts, who teaches political science at U-dub while working on his doctorate. On top of that, he's practically a full time Democratic activist and he devoted that time and activity to this race. With a margin of over 1000 votes on the first drop, all his efforts seem to have paid off. Electing young, smart, energetic liberal Democrats to public office seems to be an unqualified good thing to me.

For Position 3, Will Hall's about 400 votes ahead of Patty Hale. Again, although Hale stumbled, both when she used her position as a substitute English teacher to recruit student volunteers for her campaign, and again in her response to the reprimand her recruiting drew from the school district, but it was really a combination of Hall's experience as a legislative analyst for Snohomish County and the fact that I just like the guy that tipped me in his favor. It's a slim margin, but it's a small electorate, and it should hold up. I hope it does.

The closest race is for Position 5, where my choice, Sheri Tracey, starts out a scant 152 votes ahead with the first drop. If that expands tonight, Sheri will likely win. If it shrinks sharply or disappears, it could be days before we'll have a clear picture. The closest thing we had around here to the classic downtown v. neighborhoods battle that's a regular feature of politics in the big city down south, this one will be worth a closer look as it develops.

So, it's a ways from done but so far, so good.

Last day to mark 'em and mail 'em.

With our new all-mail elections, I suppose we don't really have an election day so mush as a deadline day. Whatever you call it, it's here. Ballots for the 2009 general election have to be postmarked by midnight tonight. If yours is still on a desk or counter at your own personal world headquarters, mark it and mail it. Now.

Election/Deadline day has arrived without my pithy analysis of my local city council races. My apologies to the mini-micro audience to which that might have mattered in any way. You've got my picks, for what they're worth to you. I'll try to review some of the reasons when I recap the results.

I know it's a cliché, but one of the reason clichés become clichés is that they express something obviously true. People really have died so you can do this.

Vote.

Howdy.

Logging in from the internet cafe down the road while we take a brief hiatus from phone service at Upper Left World Headquarters (yep, things have been that dire.) My fifteen free minutes with a cup of coffee is running out, but on Shoreline City Council, I'm voting for:

Position 1: Keith McGlashan

Position 2: Will Hall

Position 3: Shari Tracey

Position 4: Chris Roberts

My brilliant rationale for each of these choices will have to wait. Oh, yeah, and Debi Ehrlichman for school board.

Oops, the timer...see ya! Put that ballot in the mail!