The morning after…

…the big double-drop at King County Records & Elections, Shoreline City Council candidate Shari Tracey's still holding on to 51% and a fraction. It was a lead too small to call just a day or two ago, but I'm satisfied that she's going to unseat incumbent Cindy Ryu. There's about a 44% turnout based on the votes already counted, and I don't imagine that's going to change by more than a point or two as late ballots are counted (I understand that everything on hand has been reported.)

That means from top to bottom, there were only two races that came out differently than my ballot. For Port Commission, Tom Albro defeated Max Vecich, not the ideal outcome but hardly as awful as it would have been had Rob Holland lost to the conservative ideologue David Doud. My nostalgic pick for County Assessor, Gene Lux, finished fifth in a field of five, but that wasn't a surprise and I felt perfectly comfortable with either of the front runners, Lloyd Hara and Bob Rosenberger, who had split Democratic endorsements and ultimately over 60% of the vote between them. Lloyd, a fixture in Democratic politics for decades, won, and that's fine.

Other than that, though, I called 'em all. I can't remember being so satisfied with an overall election outcome. Good on all y'all who voted the right way.

And they finally seem to have straightened out the mayoral mess in the big city down south. Good on them, too.

Fair enough...

Rothenberg...

Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win -- including a divided Republican Party -- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a Pure Toss-Up.

…but it bears noting that as recently as last month the election, let alone re-election, of a Democrat in NY-23, a safe Republican haven since the 19th century, seemed like a fantasy. Toss-up? That's an incredible advance.

And that Republican divide? That's not going away anytime soon.

Hat tip to Political Wire.

It's almost a wrap.

Tonight's results make at least a couple of my cliffhangers safe to call. I may be the last to admit it - I almost can't believe it - but Referendum 71 has opened a five point lead and looks sure to pass. My home state is the first in the nation to expand civil rights for gays and lesbians at the ballot box. That's something. Of course, it took a better than two to one vote here in King County to make it happen, but it happened. Huzzah!

In the local races I'm tracking, it's going to be Will Hall for Shoreline City Council Position 3, having expanded his lead by a couple hundred more votes overnight. The trend has been consistent enough to be convincing. I voted for Will, happily, but Patty Hale was a worthy candidate for the Council as well, a dedicated community volunteer and neighborhood activist. It's a shame she got caught up in controversy during the campaign, but it was a controversy of her own making because of her apparent inability to simply say "I was wrong" and get on with it when she was reprimanded for discussing her campaign with an English class while she was on the clock as their substitute teacher. I'm sympathetic to the value of student involvement but it seems to me that Patty was in a perfect position to cadge a couple of invites to speak to social studies classes as a candidate, off the clock. It didn't help that she didn't seem to understand the difference.

At any rate, Will comes with his own record of community involvement and relevant professional experience to boot. He picked up a late endorsement from the local Democrats after incumbent Councilmember and Party favorite Janet Way came in third in the primary. Janet, who I voted for then, endorsed him as well. I didn't use the Party sample ballot as a template for my own picks, but his willingness to identify with the Democratic Party, a requirement for the endorsement, does count as another point in his favor. Congratulations are in order and extended.

Challenger Shari Tracey continues to hold a slim lead over Position 5 incumbent Cindy Ryu, with a margin of about 400 votes. A margin of one, of course, is sufficient, and it seems that Shari will likely win. I'd like a bit more certainty than "likely," though. (Insert grumble about mail ballots and glacial counts here.) The replacement of Ryu, appointed to the essentially honorary position of mayor by the current Council, will be a major shift in the power center and culture of city government. Ryu, a Democratic State Committeewoman, is a local landlord and developer with close ties (she's on the board) to the Chamber of Commerce, where the ill-fated write-in effort against Keith McGlashan was spawned. Based on the vote totals, Keith appears to be the most popular politician in town this week. I see the election of Shari Tracey, which, though not yet written in stone is growing more likely by the day, as the neighborhoods giving notice that they don't like their city being run by the Aurora corridor business community. I think that's a healthy thing.

So, I'm down to one I won't call. Happily, I don't have a horse in that mayoral mess in the big city to the south. I'm sure Slog and Goldy can keep you up to date on that.

One of these Dick Armeys…

…is not like the other. Space Cowboy busts the "Lord of the Teabags"...

And guess who tried to help Hoffman out when it became clear he had no grasp of local issues? Lord of the Teabags, Dick Armey:

Coming to Mr. Hoffman's defense, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, who accompanied the candidate on a campaign swing, dismissed regional concerns as "parochial" issues that would not determine the outcome of the election.

So, now that Hoffman has been defeated (how he even got vote 1 is beyond me), take a look at what Armey has to say about the cause of his defeat:

"The fact of the matter is, he didn't pay enough attention to the local concerns, and they were able to tag him as being unaware of the local needs and concerns," Armey said.

Ideology aside, Hoffman would have been better off reading Tip O'Neill than listening to Dick Armey.

Yep, there were more results yesterday...

…but I was already on duty at the perfect tavern when they were released. After the second vote drop, the relative cliffhanger races that I'm tracking, R-71 and Shoreline City Council seats 4 and 5, are all near where they were after the first. That means my picks are still slightly, or slightly more, ahead. There's another drop in a couple hours with, hopefully, some more definitive reports. I'll hold my analysis until then.

Meanwhile, so far so good.

Brilliant prognosticator or influential pundit?

You make the call, but if current trends hold, my city council picks will go 4 for 4. At least two of those look pretty solid right now.

Keith McGlashan's was the only name on the ballot for Position 1, but there was an active write-in candidacy against him. That could have presented a couple of problems. Since no opponent was named, some voters might have skipped over the race, thinking their vote would have no influence. It was also the first write-in campaign conducted via our new vote by mail elections, and I wondered if voting at the kitchen table might make it easier for folks to write in an alternative choice.

Well, there was a drop-off, but it didn't accrue to the benefit of Keith's late-entry opponent. The well funded write-in campaign, beneficiary of a third-party smear via an anti-McGlashan independent expenditure, picked up less than 20% of the first ballot count, while Keith posted the highest vote total of any council candidate, despite a drop-off of more than 1000 votes for the Position 1 race.

The other one that looks done is in Position 7, where Chris Roberts holds a 57%/42% lead over incumbent Ron Hansen. Hansen brought some troubles to the race - his CPA license was suspended, then revoked because he didn't observe the conditions of the suspension, which led to his Municipal League rating being revoked, which, well, it was a messy business. The real credit should be given to Roberts, who teaches political science at U-dub while working on his doctorate. On top of that, he's practically a full time Democratic activist and he devoted that time and activity to this race. With a margin of over 1000 votes on the first drop, all his efforts seem to have paid off. Electing young, smart, energetic liberal Democrats to public office seems to be an unqualified good thing to me.

For Position 3, Will Hall's about 400 votes ahead of Patty Hale. Again, although Hale stumbled, both when she used her position as a substitute English teacher to recruit student volunteers for her campaign, and again in her response to the reprimand her recruiting drew from the school district, but it was really a combination of Hall's experience as a legislative analyst for Snohomish County and the fact that I just like the guy that tipped me in his favor. It's a slim margin, but it's a small electorate, and it should hold up. I hope it does.

The closest race is for Position 5, where my choice, Sheri Tracey, starts out a scant 152 votes ahead with the first drop. If that expands tonight, Sheri will likely win. If it shrinks sharply or disappears, it could be days before we'll have a clear picture. The closest thing we had around here to the classic downtown v. neighborhoods battle that's a regular feature of politics in the big city down south, this one will be worth a closer look as it develops.

So, it's a ways from done but so far, so good.

On the statewide side…

…the results range from excellent to encouraging. Tim Eyman's I-1033 didn't lose everywhere, but it lost pretty much everywhere the people are, whether the people in question are Puget Sound liberals or Palouse wheat farmers. Folks who grow hops and grapes seem to be pretty much over Eyman, as well. Here's the map. The good guys (No voters) are in yellow...


Things are a bit dicier for R-71, and the geographic spread is a lot smaller. Seems like those wheat farmers don't like gay folks any more than they like Tim Eyman. The measure is clinging to about a 2 point lead right now, but the geographic concentration of the Yes vote is a source of encouragement, since the largest portion of outstanding votes comes from the good guy region, this time in green…

Most of the commentary I've seen seems to expect the final count to widen the margin of victory and provide a measure of increased protection for domestic partnerships. I think so too, but I'd sure like to see another big drop from King County before I pop the corks for this one.

The people have spoken.

Or written. Or filled in the blanks. Whatever you want to call what we did since ballots started appearing in mailboxes, we've had an election. King County has counted all the votes they're going to count today, and those early returns appear decisive in several races.

Dow Constantine is sitting on 57% of the vote and about a 35,000 vote lead over Susan Hutchison for King County Executive. I don't know if Hutchison has conceded, but Constantine has declared victory and he seens to be on safe ground doing so. This is a big Democratic win in a "non-partisan" election.

For King County Assessor, my old friend and mentor Gene Lux is holding 5.11% of the vote. I'm part of the .11, I guess. It's hardly a surprise - I'm not sure Gene's campaign extended beyond a voter's pamphlet statement. At any rate, it looks like former Seattle City Treasurer and Port Commissioner Lloyd Hara will get the nod, with a little over a third of the votes in a crowded field. That's fine.

For Port Commission Position 3, Rob Holland has nearly 55% of the votes counted and should handily, and happily, defeat David Doud. Max Vekich didn't fare so well, drawing little over 42% of the first day's vote count. Tom Albro, the apparent winner, wasn't my choice, but he was the choice of a lot of folks I respect and, frankly, he's not as bad a choice as Doud would have been in Position 3. I wish it was Max and Rob, but the Holland win is still one to savor and celebrate.

So far so good.

Thanks, I needed that.

Steve M. offers a little perspective before we start sifting the election entrails for omens...

* A Republican might win by an eyelash in the gubernatorial race in New Jersey -- a state that's had Republican governors for 16 of the past 28 years.

* In Virginia, a Republican will almost certainly win the governor's race -- which means that the Virginia governor will be of the party opposite that of the president who was just elected ... just like the last eight governors of Virginia, each of whom was elected a year after a presidential election and none of whom was of the president's party.

* A Democrat is probably going to lose in New York's 23rd congressional district -- a district that's changed shape over the years, but has mostly not sent a Democrat to Congress since the 19th century.

File it all under "Big whoop."

Last day to mark 'em and mail 'em.

With our new all-mail elections, I suppose we don't really have an election day so mush as a deadline day. Whatever you call it, it's here. Ballots for the 2009 general election have to be postmarked by midnight tonight. If yours is still on a desk or counter at your own personal world headquarters, mark it and mail it. Now.

Election/Deadline day has arrived without my pithy analysis of my local city council races. My apologies to the mini-micro audience to which that might have mattered in any way. You've got my picks, for what they're worth to you. I'll try to review some of the reasons when I recap the results.

I know it's a cliché, but one of the reason clichés become clichés is that they express something obviously true. People really have died so you can do this.

Vote.

Hardly time to blog...

...this morning with a double shift at the perfect tavern looming, but still time to remind you that you have enough time to get that ballot marked and in the mail.

Yes, I mean now.

Howdy.

Logging in from the internet cafe down the road while we take a brief hiatus from phone service at Upper Left World Headquarters (yep, things have been that dire.) My fifteen free minutes with a cup of coffee is running out, but on Shoreline City Council, I'm voting for:

Position 1: Keith McGlashan

Position 2: Will Hall

Position 3: Shari Tracey

Position 4: Chris Roberts

My brilliant rationale for each of these choices will have to wait. Oh, yeah, and Debi Ehrlichman for school board.

Oops, the timer...see ya! Put that ballot in the mail!

Exercising the Franchise, Part 4.

There are five more races on the front page of my ballot, four of which are uncontested - King County Sheriff, King County Council, Court of Appeals Judge and Port of Seattle Commissioner Position 1. I'll mark the ballot for my Council Member, Bob Ferguson, in hope that his finish is strong enough to deter future challenges, but I'll be part of the under vote for the rest.

The contested race is for King County Assessor. There are five names on the ballot, three of which merit consideration from Democratic voters. Lloyd Hara, former Seattle City Treasurer and Port Commissioner, is a likely favorite and a good Democrat. Former Deputy Assessor Bob Rosenberger has snagged the endorsement of my local Democratic Party organization and most every Democratic office holder that isn't in the Hara camp.

I won't make a case against either Hara or Rosenberger, and the office of Assessor will be in good hands should either of them win, but I'm voting for Gene Lux. I came to know Gene when I worked for the State House while he was carving out a reputation as a champion of working folks. I got to know him better when I was President of the Young Democrats of Washington and he was one of our strongest supporters and benefactors. He went on to the State Senate and has experience on a wide range of boards and commissions. Gene Lux has been serving the people in one capacity or another for a long time. He's never sold out. He's never sold us out. He's got my vote.

Exercising the Franchise, Part 2.

As promised, my take on the King County Charter amendments on this year's ballot. Vote for 'em. The County Charter seems to need amendment every time the Council sneezes and is probably overdue for another complete rewrite, but meantime it's left to the voters to do the housekeeping that the Councils activity requires. Most of 'em are clerical in nature, removing obsolete language and provisions. The most substantive of the bunch strengthens public protection of public lands. Vote yes on all four.

Next up, County Executive.

TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN:

Susan Hutchison is a liar.

...and a Republican.

But I repeat myself.

Exercising the Franchise, Part 1.

I'm going to take this in chunks over the next couple few days. Here's how I'm voting this year, starting with the two statewide measures on the ballot. I'd say the two at the top of the ballot, but here in King County, the ballot designers decided that the best place for the top of the ticket would be tucked away at the bottom of a column of instructions. The perennial frustration with Records and Elections goes on.

At any rate, I found Initiative 1033, Tim Eyman's latest attempt to make a buck for himself while inflicting suffering on the rest of us. Of course, I voted no. I'm pretty much a knee jerk no vote on any initiative, and Eyman's no small part of the reason why. The process has been so debased that it needs to be scrapped. It's a relic of the 19th century that we can no longer afford in the 21st.

Of course, 1033 is awful on its own, as almost every attempt to manage the budget by ballot turns out to be. There are plenty of details on that here. Poke around a bit, find that sucker on the page and vote it down.

On the other hand, I'm voting for Referendum 71 in order to sustain the Legislature's passage of ESSB 5688, the so-called "everything but marriage" domestic partnership bill. I'd be happier if all the effort being expended on behalf of R-71 was for an "actually marriage" bill, but we can't let bigotry have a victory on this one. The new law is something better than a half measure - call it the 90% solution - and it's probably the best we can get out of Olympia for the time being, so two cheers and a vote for are in order.

Next up, the King County Charter Amendments. I bet you're on the edge of your seat...

A quick voter alert…

I'll be posting my ballot choices soon, but f you're an early King County voter and just can't sit around waiting for my full and profound guidance, take a close look at your ballot and be sure you've voted against Initiative 1033. You wouldn't be the first to miss it way down there in the corner...

From the "Me neither" file.

Dave Freiboth, Executive Secretary of the King County Labor Council, on the prospects of a last minute write-in campaign for Seattle Mayor by State Senator Ed Murray…

"It's kind of saying, 'you voters are so damn emotional, do you know what you did?' That's kind of patronizing. As a voter, I don't want to be treated like that."

Me neither.

By and large, Ed Murray's one of the good guys, but this sounds like a bad idea.

And isn't there a referendum on one of his bills that he should be focused on?

Update: The Senator, apparently, agrees.