You know it's over…

…if Dino says it's over. The Seattle Times reports...

Democrat Patty Murray has won a fourth term to the U.S. Senate. Her Republican challenger, Dino Rossi, conceded the race Thursday evening after new vote totals showed Murray widening her lead.

Don't worry about Dino, though. There's still big money to be made in the foreclosure speculation racket business.

Elsewhere, Goldy calls WA-02 for Larsen. From his keyboard to your favorite diety's monitor...

A public service announcement.

The Washington State Labor Council wants you to know…

"Dino Rossi works for them. Senator Patty Murray works for us."

Where, of course, them = BP, Fox, JPMorganChase, Walmart, AIG, Philip Morris, Citigroup, Pfizer, McDonalds, Comcast, AT&T, etc. and us = well, us.

She only works for us if we vote for her, though. Ballots are in the mail hereabouts. Use yours promptly and wisely.

Vote for us.

Hat tip to Howie.

We can always use a little good news.

Darryl delivers...

...the October polls, taken as a whole, support the idea that Murray would win with a 94.5% probability in an election held now. Here is the picture...

Pretty picture, isn't it?

The truth.

Via Goldy...

The truth is, Rossi wrote the 2003-2005 state budget much in the same way that Dave Reichert caught the Green River Killer, in that he didn’t.

Yep, it's true.

From the "Me too" file.

Senator Murray…

“Mr. Rossi today said that he thinks that French workers should have an unfair advantage in bidding to build our military’s tanker as our state’s Boeing workers in Everett. I think he’s plain wrong.”

Me too.

Shorter Dino Rossi.

If I don't get a tax break, nobody does.

From the "Then again…" file.

Chris Grygiel performs a public act of journalism, peeking behind the headlines into the crosstabs of the new outlier poll on the Murray-Rossi race. Like an iceberg, most of the story is lurking below the surface.

...according to SurveyUSA, Rossi was favored over Murray by people in Western Washington by 53-44 percent and the two were tied in the greater Seattle area at 48 percent. However in Tuesday's primary, Murray did better than Rossi in every Western Washington county except one - Lewis County (click here for the results). In King County, which is Seattle and its suburbs, Murray ran up huge numbers on Rossi. She won 59 percent to 27 percent, prevailing by more than 120,000 votes.

Hmmm.

Crossfiled under "Don't Panic."

From the "Me neither" file.

Failed Grand Old Palin Tea Party Senate candidate Clint Didier…

"At this moment, I cannot endorse Dino Rossi."

Me neither.

I'm trying to come up with something interesting…

…to say about the US Senate primary, but so far the results are tediously predictable. It'll be Patty Murray against Dino Rossi, but you knew that last week. Last month, for that matter. Probably could'a guessed last year.

When the rest of the votes from the Puget Sound corridor come in, it'll be interesting to see how close Patty comes to the 50% mark with the traditionally conservative primary electorate, but other than that the results are most interesting as a lead-in to the Sarah Palin scorecard in the upper left last night.

Palin made three endorsements in this state. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is an establishment incumbent, and the safe bet paid off for Sarah last night. John Koster in the 2nd CD is a challenger, but still a known quantity among Republicans in northwest Washington and was likely to come through the primary with or without the Palin seal of approval.

The campaign that really tested the value of a Palin endorsement, of course, was Clint Didier's US Senate bid. She jumped aboard early, while Dino was still picking up pin money on the foreclosure seminar circuit, and Didier played her name for all it was worth. She never appeared in the state on his behalf, though. As far as I know, the only face time he got with the former half a governor was when she summoned him away from the state Republican convention in Vancouver while she had momentarily lit down in the tri-cities. There was a recorded message for a last minute round of robocalls, but I'd imagine it all added up to a lot less than Didier had hoped. At least 22% less, which is how much he trails Rossi for second place as the results stand.

From the "Since you asked…" file.

A three-fer from Darryl...

Dino Rossi a blatent hypocrite? Shamelessly flip-flopping for political gain? Whodathunk?!

Since you asked, yep, you bet and I woulda.

The clear choice…

…of the extremist wing of a radical party.

Tom Coburn: 'Dino will be an ally'

So much for the notion that there's still a mainstream "Dan Evans wing" in the Republican Party hereabouts.

Couldn't happen to a nicer Party.

Well, they're not actually nice at all, of course, but Republican Tea Party is headed off the rails. For example...

Roy Blunt is birther-curious.
Roy Blunt says maybe the government "should have never have gotten in the health care business" with Medicare and Medicaid.
Roy Blunt used a parable to compare President Obama and other Democrats in Washington to monkeys.
Roy Blunt wants to repeal health care reform.
Roy Blunt is not conservative enough for his state's teabaggers.

Even Michele Bachmann doesn't pass the Tea Party test in Missouri. The Republicans have been exploiting fear and selling crazy for decades and it's finally catching up. That's one of the reasons I've avoided hitting the panic button despite the dire predictions for Democrats hither and yon.

I expect Blunt will be the Republican nominee, but will the RTP'ers throw up a challenge or sit on their hands come election day? Either's a possibility, one or the other is, I think, likely. How many places will this play out. Here in the upper left, will Clint Didier and the Palinites come home to Dino?

I can't wait until November. Our prospects look better every day.

Quote of the day.

Via Goldy...

Dino Rossi on DISCLOSE:

"_"

Speaking of lists…

…recycled Republican candidate Dino Rossi's got himself on one, too. CREW's 2010 "Crooked Candidates" is pretty exclusive, with only eleven on the list and not just any eleven. As CREW Executive Director Melanie Sloan explains, "…these 11 candidates represent the bottom of the barrel." A look at Dino's award citation, though, quickly proves he deserves the distinction.

The list, unranked and alphabetical…

· Roy Blunt (R) U.S. Senate, MO
· Charlie Crist (I) U.S. Senate, FL
· Jeff Denham (R) U.S. House, CA
· Alvin Greene (D) U.S. Senate, SC
· Timothy Griffin (R) U.S. House, AR
· J.D. Hayworth (R) U.S. Senate, AZ
· Ed Martin (R) U.S. House, MO
· Kendrick Meek (D) U.S. Senate, FL
· Dino Rossi (R) U.S. Senate, WA
· Marco Rubio (R) U.S. Senate, FL
· Allen West (R) U.S. House, FL

Any congratulations due are actually Patty's to claim, I suppose.

A mystery wrapped in enigma within a conundrum?

Patty Murray's Homeless Women Veterans and Homeless Veterans With Children Act sounds like a slam dunk. Helping homeless vets and their kids? If we can, we must, right? Apparently not...

It was approved in committee with bipartisan support, and Murray brought it to the floor this morning, seeking unanimous consent. She didn't get it -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) objected on behalf of Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), who apparently was concerned about funding.

Apparently. Of course, when it comes to funding Dino Rossi, Tom Coburn's a yes vote...

Key Senate Republicans will be hosting a fundraiser for Rossi in northeast Washington (DC) with a reception where attendees could mingle with a dozen Senate incumbents. The $500-a-person event is being held at an address listed for Polaris Consulting, a lobbying firm that promises clients "unparalled access, expertise and experience."

Among the hosts will be Sen. Orrin Hatch, vice chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and Sen. Lamar Alexander, Senate GOP Conference chairman. Sen. Jim DeMint, of South Carolina, Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, and Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee are some of the others expected to attend.

Makes me wonder whether the budget is Coburn's only motive in blocking Patty Murray's bill.

What'cha think? Would Tom Coburn block assistance to the kids of homeless vets just to deny Patty Murray a popular - and necessary - legislative accomplishment?

And does Dino feel as good about taking Coburn's cash as Dave Reichert feels about his Barton bucks?

Mysteries abound and compound...

It almost sounds reasonable.

After all Dino Rossi's hit the high 40s with a statewide electorate before, so the new Rasmussen numbers showing him tied with Patty Murray at 47% might seem improbable, but are, on the surface, plausible.

Rasmussen didn't stop there, though. They polled two other names against Patty, Republicans Clint Didier and Paul Akers, who came in at 40 and 38% repectively against 48% for Murray.

Please. His NFL experience on the other coast and the former half-term Governor of Alaska's enthusiasm notwithstanding, you won't find 40% of Washingtonians who can ID Clint Didier. I doubt if 8%, let alone 38, have any clue who Paul Akers is.

If they hadn't gone deeper than Murray-Rossi, you could almost say "Yeah, I could believe that." At second glance, if Dino can only drum up 47% from a sample so riddled with "anybody but Murray" voters that Didier and Akers come off looking competetive, Patty might beat him worse than I dare imagine.

Yep, it almost sounds reasonable.



Until you remember it's Rasmussen.

From the "Don't Panic" file.

Once again, Darryl does statistical analysis so I don't have to, which is a good thing since he knows how and I don't.

Hand wringing over Patty Murray's re-election campaign seems to becoming something of a cottage industry for pundits these days. Take the spin Goldy finds Publicola putting on the new Elway poll. While they're pushing the "Rossi gains ground" line, it turns out to be a very good poll for Patty. How good? That's where Darryl comes in…

If we normalize this poll (i.e. look only at the 352 who had an opinion) Murray is at 54% to Rossi’s 46%. As usual, I’ll approximate the probable outcome of a hypothetical election held today using Monte Carlo simulations. A million simulated elections of 405 voters at the percentages observed gives Murray 853,011 wins to Rossi’s 138,593 wins. The results suggest that if the election was held now, Murray would win with a probability of 86% and Rossi would wins with a probability of 14%. Here is the distribution of results from the simulated elections:

This, of course, presumes that Rossi gets through the primary. Given the Washington State Republicans historical affection for extreme candidates, that may be likely but it's not assured.

I figure he'll make it, though. My totally non-scientific gut feeling is that Patty's going to hold Rossi to the low 40s at best and deliver the third strike that knocks him out of the political picture hereabouts.

I've known Patty since she really was that mom in tennis shoes who cared enough about how the schools she sent her kids to were run that she went door to door and asked her neighbors for a chance to be one of the people running them. I voted for her in that election. She won. I've been voting for her every since, for the State Senate and now the US Senate. One thing I've learned along the way is that she's the best active politician in this state.

It helps that she's in it, as she always has been, for all the right reasons. Even among people who may disagree with her on some issues, she's going to own the trust issue in this election, and that's a very big deal in times like these.

My confidence in her prospects, then, is based a combination of confidence that Patty will run a smart and aggressive campaign and a trust in her basic integrity that's rooted in having watched her throughout her career in public office. Senator Murray, and when she's on the floor or in caucus, she's every bit Senator Murray, is, back her on the ground where folks live, still Patty.

If this sounds like an endorsement, well, of course. That endorsement's been a standing one since 1983.

Filing week follies.

It's the last day of filing week in the upper left and the various contests seem to be firming up. Not a lot of noteworthy changes in the last couple of days. Dino Rossi has finally filed, taking a firm stand against redundancy by eschewing his "Prefers GOP Party" designation for "Prefers Republican Party." The whole "prefers" thing is still driving me crazy. A good example of the mess the anti-partisans have made of our primary system, though, is right here at home in the 32nd Legislative District.

Republican Gary Gagliardi filed to lose to incumbent Democratic State Rep. Ruth Kagi early, but it took a couple days for perennial candidate Stan Lippmann, who has apparently moved to Lake Forest Park since his run for mayor of Seattle, has filed with the designation "prefers Democratic Party." One wonders since when, since, according to the Shoreline Area News...

Lippmann has run in the past for Congress, attorney general, Seattle mayor and other offices under a variety of party labels. He is currently a Republican precinct committee officer in Lake Forest Park.

Given the state of election law in our state, it's apparently fine for an officer holder in one political party to file for election as a "preferer" of another political party. Sounds like fraud to me, but without partisan registration or partisan primaries, it's just the kind of mischief our laws not only allow, but seem to encourage.

With the top two primary in place, "Democrat" Stan Lippmann could well end up facing Democrat Ruth Kagi in November. I kind of doubt it, but it could happen. That's just wrong.

Filing week Wednesday.

We're halfway to the end of filing week in Washington, that magical time when dreams are dashed, rumors are confirmed and suprises are always in store. My notes so far…

I'll be talking more about my confidence in Patty Murray at the top of our state ticket this year as time goes on. Frankly I think Dino's entry is the greatest gift so far. I note that the perennials (Goodspaceguy, Mike the Mover) show a marked preference for the Democratic Party, as meaningless as that may be in a top two primary.

My own personal Congressman has drawn five challengers so far, including three self-ID'd Democrats. This may hold him under 65% of the vote in the primary.

There will be a Democratic contestant in every Washington State Congressional district. Long odds for a sweep, but you can't win if you don't play. Score one for State Party Chair Dwight Pelz and his team.

Locally, all three legislative positions in the 32nd District are on the ballot. The Senate seat is open, due to Sen. Darlene Fairley's retirement. So far the Senate seat and incumbent Democratic Rep. Ruth Kagi have drawn typically token Republican challengers, but the action is in the House Position 1 race, where Shoreline City Councilmember Doris McConnell and former Councilmember Cindy Ryu have filed to replace Rep. Maralyn Chase, who is running for the open Senate seat. Ryu won an early nomination from the local Democratic organization, but in our party-blind top two primary system, they could both run as Democrats, or Democratic Party "preferers," all the way to November.

Meanwhile, filing week continues and there's still time for you to get involved. If you aren't a PCO and your precinct needs one, it's never been easier to get on the ballot in King County. If you're reading this, you can click over to King County Elections and file online. No fuss, no fee. Get your name on the ballot. Good for your Party. Good for your country. Good for you.

When she's not attacking…

…she's endorsing. Timothy Egan considers the outcome...

As for the Palin brand, it seems to represent no consistent philosophy, no guiding principles, no remedial vetting. It stands for one thing — Palin — and in that sense, she does have a legacy, though it can only be measured in dollars.

Palin's endorsement of Clint Didier may turn out to be the high point of Dino Rossi's Senate campaign.

Hat tip to Darryl.