Saturday, January 19, 2008

My perfect record is secure.

Yep, wrong again. First, I overlooked the 3 pledged PLEO delegates from Nevada, which means three more were in play than I divided. I imagine I would have split them 2-1 in favor of Clinton. Where I really went off track was imagining that Edwards could snag a meaningful share of the delegates. Actually, I had mentally written off Nevada when UNITE HERE made the (erroneous) calculation that they could put Obama over the top. Union solidarity was Edwards' only real shot in Nevada, and solidarity was not to be obtained (nor was union turnout, as Carl notes in a comment). Here’s the latest from CNN, with 98% reporting (numbers reflect state convention delegates & percentatge and estimated national convention delegates)…

Clinton 5353 (51%) 12
Obama 4771 (45%) 13
Edwards 395 (4%) 0
Yep, it says Clinton has more votes (in the form of delegates to the state convention) than Obama, yet Obama has a higher estimated delegate count. Just one of the things worth keeping in mind as you watch upcoming results - delegates are not always apportioned on the basis of statewide results. Most Nevada delegates are awarded at the Congressional district level, and will be selected in sub-caucuses at the state convention. That means, of course, that all the state delegates show, and that all of them are faithful to their caucus outcome, and that everyone's credentials hold up, and, well, we've got a ways to go, in Nevada and nationally. All national delegate counts now are estimates, and while a number of superdelegates have made an endorsement (overwhelmingly for Hillary), none of them are, in fact, pledged.

Of course, third place with no delegates is a hard spot for Edwards. With the diminished field, he's more likely to be the odd man out in a caucus, and has no second tier to draw from. He may fare better in primaries going forward. To maintain anything more than an emotional rationale (and it's a powerful emotional rationale, no doubt), he needs more delegates, enough for some leverage, on the platform, rules and ultimately the nomination.

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