It's cheating, I suppose…

…to offer predictions after the first ballots have been reported, but I promise the Dixville Notch outcome hasn't unduly influenced my analysis. In fact, the only undue influences are my own biases, but that's why I have a blog in the first place. So here goes.

Barack Obama seems unstoppable in New Hampshire. A big lead in the end, I imagine. High thirty's, maybe 40%?

Hillary in a weak second, double digits behind. 26, 27%? No "comeback kid" for this Clinton, though. She was supposed to own New Hampshire. No honorable mention. Anything but a win is a loss for the Senator.

If Edwards can finish in the twenties, say two or three points behind Clinton, and snag another decent share of the delegates, he'll be in fair shape to move on. Just because his opponents have raised enough money for three or four primary campaigns - it's amazing in a historic sense, distressing in several others - doesn't mean he can't afford his, and with the likelihood of a three-way race to the convention, well, those chunks of delegates can be very powerful.

This, of course, is predicated on Richardson picking up a few percent and Kucinich a couple. While they'll each fall short of the delegate threshold in that event, their impact would be felt. I suspect that any Kucinich defections would be to Obama, and Richardson's likely to Hillary, in both cases at Edwards' expense, but don't expect him to encounter any threshold problems.

Or, as pal o'Upper Left Terry is apt to say, I could be wrong…