Saturday, January 26, 2008

I didn't make a prediction...

…for South Carolina, and now there's enough counted to consider it done. No surprises. Actually, if I had published a prediction here, I probably would have come closer than usual. My best wild guess was around a 50-30-20 split, Obama on top, Edwards trailing. Here's CNN's latest (96% reporting)...
Obama 55% 15 delegates
Clinton 27% 6 delegates
Edwards 18% 5 delegates
Actually, with one of the most heavily African American Democratic electorates in the country and women making up over 60% of the turnout as identity politics have taken center stage in the debate, five delegates for the white guy isn't really bad at all. Another shutout, especially in SC would have been crippling, but I think Edwards can take some encouragement from the result. Obama deserves congratulations for securing his base and running an effective field operation. Hillary takes a little momentum hit, I suppose, but I don't think she was counting on South Carolina to put her over the top.

Now it's gonna get real interesting...
More delegates apportioned with 99% reporting...
Obama 25
Clinton 12
Edwards 8
Nice haul for Obama, no doubt.

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