Every time you hear...

...that "no candidate has ever" or "every candidate has always" achieved a given result based on their performance in early primary states, it's worth remembering that our current system of choosing a Democratic nominee is of relatively recent vintage. The system before the McGovern reforms in the wake of the '68 convention hardly resembled what we have today.

That means our early predictions are based on a sample of 9 elections. Two of those featured a Democratic incumbent, one the sitting vice president during a time of relative peace and prosperity. Strike those. 6 elections.

I took a gentleman's C in statistics, but 6 seems like a mighty small sample to me.