On impossibility.

You can't poll Iowa.

Polling is problematic everywhere, but it just can't be done for a caucus. The effect of human interaction in a precinct caucus where pleas are heard, offers are made and deals are cut face to face with real people from down the block defies prediction.

Everyone's heard about the 15% threshold required to earn a share of the delegates at a precinct, but most of the speculation has been around which of the big three candidates might benefit most from the supporters of candidates who don't make the cut. The range of speculation about that possibility alone is enough to cast doubt on the validity of pre-caucus polling.

It's even weirder than that, though. There's no reason the second tier candidate's supporters have to go to the big 3 at all. If they have the numbers, they can band together under the banner of any candidate, or of no candidate at all. And all those undecided voters in those polls? They can stay undecided. "Uncommitted" is an eligible delegate category, if you can assemble 15% of the attendees.

Not complicated enough to confound the pollsters, you say? Well, consider that if the candidates who have made threshold have an attendee or two to spare, they might shift them around for their own strategic advantage. For instance, suppose three candidates have made threshold, with one having a lead that allows them to select more delegates than the other. A savvy supporter of the second or third place candidate might watch the sign in sheet with an eye beyond the immediate outcome of their precinct and begin cutting the deal that brings a fourth candidate to threshold, which might deprive the top candidate of a delegate or two.

And there's that neighborhood thing. These are people you know, people who wave when you drive by, people who nod at the corner store, people you do business with, people whose kids play with your kids. People you’d usually like to help out, if you can. When that guy in the bright gold IAFF for Dodd shirt standing next to the sign in table says he just needs one or two more folks to get out of the room as a delegate, and that's real important to him and to his union, what do you suppose the odds are that one or two of that firefighter's neighbors, through friendship, respect for his role in the community or labor solidarity, will step up and help him out?

Then again, maybe not.

Nope, you can't poll Iowa.

Which is why it's so much fun.