The variety of variables…

…affecting the Washington primary are coming into focus, and there's some bright spots in the outcome for Peter Goldmark in WA-05. Early returns were accompanied by some fretting. Darryl's concern was typical...

Unfortunately, the news is not so good for Peter Goldmark in the 5th CD. His Republican opponent, Rep. Cathy McMorris got 46,340 to his 34,185. Goldmark definitely has his work cut out for him.

The numbers have changed a bit, but the percentages are fairly consistent. With 100% counted, the Secretary of State has McMorris in the lead, 59,963 to 42,540. That puts Peter around 42%, above the 40% number that conventional wisdom has traditionally set as the credibility bar for challengers. Of course, that conventional wisdom was based on the old head to head primary system. Getting voters in eastern Washington to select a Democratic ballot is problematic for a variety of reasons (actually, getting voters anywhere in Washington to select any partisan ballot can be problematic), so I think the numbers are actually more hopeful than they might have been in the past.

That's just one of the relevant variables. Jason Black has some interesting notes on the undervotes in the race that offer more encouragement to Goldmark supporters. More encouragement can be found when the State Supreme Court campaigns are taken into account. The Spokane television market was ceded to John Groen and the BIAW without a response from Justice Alexander, who counted on the Puget Sound region to put him over the top, which almost certainly aided McMorris. Add to that a hotly contested Republican primary for the Spokane County Sheriff driving independents to select a Republican ballot, and Goldmark's 42% begins to brighten considerably.

Darryl's right, of course. Peter Goldmark does have his work cut out for him. Challengers always do. He's been doing the work, though, beating McMorris in fundraising two quarters in a row and battling for every vote, and there's nothing in the primary returns to indicate that he can't complete that work successfully.

Of course, as hard as he works, there's no doubt he needs your help.

This is still one we can win.