Friday, June 16, 2006

Maybe it's best to cool our jets…

…until we see just what happens in Connecticut.

A Hotline item reporting that DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer "refused to rule out" supporting Holy Joe if he were to run as an independent after a primary loss to Ned Lamont. The reaction from liberal bloggers came fast and furious, with warnings to Schumer and calls for withholding contributions from the Committee. It probably behooves everyone to settle down just a bit.

Don't get me wrong. I support Lamont's challenge and appreciate his commitment to respect the outcome of the primary election. On the other hand, I have some sympathy for Schumer's situation right now. For better or (mostly) worse, Joe Lieberman is a member of the caucus represented by the DSCC and, as such, is a contributor to the Committee, as well as a past Finance Chair of the Committee. Even if he loses the primary election and undertakes an independent run, he will do so as a member of the Democratic caucus. Schumer, then is honor bound to be circumspect in any discussions of the Connecticut race. After all, caucus members contribute millions of dollars to the Committee every cycle, and they don't imagine that any of their own dollars might somehow be used against them some day.

Of course, regardless of the outcome of the primary, it's unlikely that Lieberman would receive anything from the DSCC except another solicitation to invest in needier campaigns. I think "full support" in the context of the Connecticut Senate race means "We aren't going to hurt him." rather than "We plan to help him."

In other words, Joe Lieberman's not likely to get any money you might donate to the DSCC, before or after the primary and regardless of the outcome.

Oh yeah. The outcome.

In fact, Joe Lieberman is still the favorite (though his advantage is fading) in the primary, and in the general he appears well situated to win with or without the Party nomination. That's a further complication that requires an additional degree of circumspection from the DSCC Chair. John Aravosis sets the potential problem with one of the potential outcomes...
"I'd really hate to see Lieberman put in a position where he's holding all the cards - i.e., Lieberman runs as an independent, wins, the Senate is divided 49-50, and then the Dems have to BEG Lieberman to support Harry Reid as the party leader rather than the Republicans. ... That's not good for the Democratic party or America."
Meanwhile, the DSCC needs support from all quarters, including the netroots, in order to support targeted candidates and pursue the path to 51. Frankly, the netroots, too, need to increase our profile as a source of support for the Party committees as well as candidates in order to maximize our influence with the national Party. Along with Avarosis' concerns, there's the potential for a new Senate majority without, or even against, our efforts. That would be good for the Party, sure, and for the country, but bad for the netroots.

Of course, if Joe Lieberman does win the primary, all this is academic. If he loses the primary and doesn't make an independent bid, this is all sound and fury signifying nothing. If he wins the primary, well, the seat needs to be Democratic, even if it's not the Democrat I prefer.

Bottom line? If you want a Democratic majority in the US Senate, you want the DSCC to succeed and they still deserve your consideration. That's why they're on the Upper Left ActBlue page, and that's why they'll stay there. If you want Ned Lamont to be part of that majority, you know how to make that happen too.

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