Did he say 'bright prospects'?

Yep, I'm back to talk about just how good things look for a Democratic upset in the '06 election cycle. I know the smart money is betting against Speaker Pelosi taking the gavel in January of 2007, but it wouldn't be all that surprising at all, really.

History, after all, is on our side. While the average midterm loss for the President's party since WWII is 25.5 seats, second terms are particularly deadly for incumbents, since the first term average is only 13.3 seats. From a purely historical standpoint, then, a pickup of, 30 or so seats wouldn't be exceptional.

Doubters will point out the effects of gerrymandering, as though that's somehow a new phenomenon, and that there are simply not enough seats in genuine play. As Ruy Teixeira pointed out earlier this year, though, there are 25 "high-risk" districts held by a Republican Member of Congress that lean Democratic in Presidential elections. Any of those could be in play, and all of them should be vigorously challenged.

The vulnerability of House Republicans can be enhanced by a campaign tying them to the catalog of ethical violations, radical destructionist agenda and generally divisive behavior of the Republican leadership. No matter how attractive, how eloquent or how 'moderate' those high-risk Republicans may be, they each have personal responsibility for the elevation of Tom Delay and his destructionist cronies to their positions of power, and for the abuse of that power.

Last week brought more encouraging news, with new polling showing that "...in seven of the nearly 40 Republican House districts that the DCCC is targeting, showed that no GOP Member registered re-election numbers higher than 43 percent heading into 2006."

Now, that's only seven districts, but more interesting to me is the number of districts already targeted this far out. There have been several signs that the DCCC is putting a more aggressive effort, with exactly the kind of emphasis on the grass roots that Chairman Dean is encouraging in the Party at large (having the best on-line shop in the Party is only part of the DCCC drive, but an important part). There are also signs that it's paying off. Quoting The Hill, Political Wire notes that…

So far, the DCCC "has recruited 19 candidates to challenge incumbents or run for open seats, well ahead of the three candidates the committee had at this time last cycle."

Well ahead, indeed. And another great reason to look forward to '06.

Feel better now?