BOO!

I'm not entirely sure what the impact of the new Osama tape will be on the election, but my best guess is that it will range from none at all to a slight bump for Kerry. I am pretty sure, though, that the last thing Karl and George want at this point is a reminder that Bin Laden is alive, well and at large.

OBL has been Kerry's issue, and he's been clubbing Bush with it on a regular basis for weeks. Charges that he's politicizing this tape ring hollow because he's never dropped the issue, so he doesn't have to change his message to deal with the latest news.

All the nervous Nellies ready to score this as advantage Bush are ignoring his continual effort to hide the Bin Laden question behind the Saddam smokescreen and the continual spin that's come from Bush allies who have opined that Osama was either buried in the rubble or ill unto death in some vermin infested cave.

Nope. He's alive, well and at large, and that's bad for Bush. If you're tempted think otherwise, think again, and think once more before you speak. Josh Marshall is right...

Whether this OBL tape represents no-bump, a bump, or something more damaging than a bump, I don't know. But reactions can dictate and shape outcomes, especially in such a context as this where perception is the essence of the matter.

Don't give 'em an inch, especially not on our issues.

Get a grip. Get busy. Get out the vote.