Swiftly Sinking

It seems like only yesterday (actually, it was yesterday) that the fretting over the Swift Lie Boaters for Bush was spreading far and wide in the blogosphere. Matt Stoller was typical...

The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad is working. I've heard from several people in the past few weeks who tell me it was effective on someone they knew. Dave Johnson has more:

I just caught a poll reported on MSNBC that says about 30% of independent-swing voters who had been leaning to Kerry change their mind after seeing the "Swift Boat Veterans" ad.

It's working -- big time

Of course, the "poll" in question didn't measure the reactions of independent voters who had actually seen the ad in question in one of the limited markets where it's appeared. Digby dug up the details.

The Swift Vets study used 1,275 participants, including 371 independents, who watched ads and registered their reaction at every second using technology normally used to rate product ads. Half viewed the Swift Vets ad and the other half saw a pro-Kerry ad based on his convention speech, which was rated less persuasive.

[...]

The ad planted doubts in the minds of 27 percent of independent voters who planned to vote for Kerry or leaned pro-Kerry. After seeing it, they were no longer sure they'd back him, the study found.

So, 27% of whatever subset of 371 'independents' in the study sample had second thoughts after seeing the ad without context. Wait, only half saw the attack ad. So 27% of Kerry leaners in a total sample of less than 200 were adversly affected by the ad. Let's be generous and give JK 60% of the sample. What you end up with is about 30 people in a sample of 185 or so. Any statisticians out there got the MOE for a national poll based on a sample of 185 respondents handy?

As meaningless as the kind of second hand anecdotal evidence that's got Matt worried may be, it's rock solid evidence compared to the "poll" that seems to have weakened Dave Johnson's knees.

In fact, as I've said, the Kerry camp has been using its surrogates (and, in the case of John McCain, one of Bush's surrogates!) pretty effectively in combatting the story. How effectively? Well, I can't think of a thing that John Kerry could have said himself that would have drawn this kind of response from no less than Bill O'Reilly.

I believe Jim Rassmann when he says that Kerry saved his life by pulling him out of a Vietnam river while under fire. Rassmann is a former Green Beret, a former police officer and a long time registered Republican until earlier this year. If he says John Kerry is a hero, nobody should doubt it. Rassmann has earned the right to be trusted and insulting his testimony is way out of line ...

...I think the Swift Boat political advertisement calling Kerry a charlatan is in poor taste, and if this kind of thing continues it might well backfire on the Kerry haters. Most Americans are fair minded, and bitter personal attacks do not go down well with folks who are not driven by partisanship.

Via Salon

Similarly, Chris Matthews has come to Kerry's defense, slamming Swift Liar John O'Neil on the air and concluding that the evidence shows that Kerry has "done a hell of a lot more" in service to the nation than Matthews himself.

Now major print media have weighed in, with today's Washington Post carrying a story that directly and sharply contradicts the claims of Swift Liar Larry Thurlow. Lambert summarizes the WaPo findings at Corrente.

In newspaper interviews and a best-selling book, Larry Thurlow, who commanded a Navy Swift boat alongside Kerry in Vietnam, has strongly disputed Kerry's claim that the Massachusetts Democrat's boat came under fire during a mission in Viet Cong-controlled territory on March 13, 1969. Kerry won a Bronze Star for his actions that day.

But Thurlow's military records, portions of which were released yesterday to The Washington Post under the Freedom of Information Act, contain several references to "enemy small arms and automatic weapons fire" directed at "all units" of the five-boat flotilla. Thurlow won his own Bronze Star that day, and the citation praises him for providing assistance to a damaged Swift boat "despite enemy bullets flying about him."

Competing with the WaPO revealations is this new editorial from the New York Times.

It may seem outlandish to launch a campaign broadside by television ad and book flackery devoted to discrediting the respectable Vietnam War record of Senator John Kerry, who has five combat medals. But that is exactly what a Republican-financed group of partisans is doing in presenting itself as Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and tattooing the Democratic presidential nominee with accusations of lying about his service and war wounds. Never in Mr. Kerry's command, but claiming to have served near enough, its members are trying to contradict the firsthand accounts of his crewmates who are vouching for his war record.

And now yet another Kerry crewman, Pat Runyon, has stepped forward after decades of silence to confirm Kerry's leadership under fire, and to endorse the validity of Kerry's first Purple Heart. Roger Ailes has the story...

"Lt. Kerry said, 'I'm going to pop a flare, and when I do, I want that engine started,' " Runyon said. But the outboard would not crank. Meanwhile, the sampan's crew steered it to the riverbank, and people started running on the shore. Runyon said shooting broke out.

Somehow, Kerry's weapon stopped firing. Runyon thinks he ran out of ammunition. He said Kerry bent down to pick up another gun and got hit in the arm.

Digby calls the roll...

Let's add up the discredited Scumbags, shall we?

Nixon hatchetman O'Neill gets caught in serveral lies about his recent Republican ties --- makes complete fool of himself trying to claim that half of the money he gave to the GOP was actually given by someone with a similar name.

Jerome Corsi is revealed as an insane Freeper bigot.

George Elliott can't decide from day to day which affidavit about Kerry's silver star is correct and makes the strong point that his own documentary evidence of 30 years ago was likely wrong because he can't think of a reason why these guys would lie 30 years later.

Now we have Thurlow.

And the Carpetbagger Report chimes in.

So that Swiftboat crew, which Bush still refuses to denounce, sure has compiled quite a team, hasn't it? In addition to the latest discredited hack, we've got a doctor who claims to have treated Kerry but whose name doesn't appear on any medical records, an anti-Catholic bigot, a man who's already distanced himself from his own charges against Kerry, and a GOP attack dog with no credibility. Oh yeah, I almost forgot -- none of these men actually served alonside Kerry.

Still, a lot of folks have been looking for a personal response from Kerry himself, and in a speech he delivered to the IAFF Convention, they g0t their wish, as Kerry took aim at the Swift Liars and expanded the field of fire to include Bush himself.

Over the last week or so, a group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth has been attacking me. Of course, this group isn’t interested in the truth - and they’re not telling the truth. They didn’t even exist until I won the nomination for president.

But here’s what you really need to know about them. They’re funded by hundreds of thousands of dollars from a Republican contributor out of Texas. They’re a front for the Bush campaign. And the fact that the President won’t denounce what they’re up to tells you everything you need to know-he wants them to do his dirty work.
Thirty years ago, official Navy reports documented my service in Vietnam and awarded me the Silver Star, the Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts. Thirty years ago, this was the plain truth. It still is. And I still carry the shrapnel in my leg from a wound in Vietnam.

As firefighters you risk your lives everyday. You know what it’s like to see the truth in the moment. You’re proud of what you’ve done-and so am I.

Of course, the President keeps telling people he would never question my service to our country. Instead, he watches as a Republican-funded attack group does just that. Well, if he wants to have a debate about our service in Vietnam, here is my answer: “Bring it on.”

I’m not going to let anyone question my commitment to defending America-then, now, or ever. And I’m not going to let anyone attack the sacrifice and courage of the men who saw battle with me.

And let me make this commitment today: their lies about my record will not stop me from fighting for jobs, health care, and our security - the issues that really matter to the American people.

There's no way to keep a boat afloat when it's this full of holes, folks.

I told you.

Don't Panic.