Yes, there's still a war...

...but it's hard to figure out what's going on right now. Most of my usual sources are relatively quiet. Various negotiations seem to be stalled to one degree or another, and various hot spots seem to have fallen into tense stalemates, with each side waiting for the other to move. There's some saber rattling on both sides, but apparently no intensive action.

The recent insurgency is far from over, though, I'm afraid. In typical fashion, we seem to insist on underestimating the enemie's strength of both forces and will. A recent post by Juan Cole is instructive:

"But I confess myself deeply puzzled as to how, after being in Iraq for over a year, these bright and well-informed persons could have gotten the Sadrist movement so wrong.

1) It is a longstanding social movement, not just a fly by night militia
2) It is not tiny in numbers of adherents, though not all adherents are willing to put themselves out for it at the moment; that could change.
3) It has lots of potential leaders besides Muqtada
4) Its cadres can easily become guerrillas, as the Army of the Mahdi shows."

It's also important to remember that these guys live there. Rotation, even delayed rotation, isn't an option. They're not going away. And they're not inclined to be quiet.

In many ways, they're a lot like our enemy in Vie...but no.

That would be the wrong message, wouldn't it?