Looking toward Tuesday...

There's not much to provoke disagreement with David S. Broder and Dan Balz' lede in a piece syndicated by the Washington Post. They write that "Sen. John Kerry is poised to lock up the Democratic presidential nomination — effectively if not mathematically — when 10 states hold primaries and caucuses Tuesday on the biggest and perhaps final day of the contest this year"

Despite speculation that the race is tightening in spots, the data doesn't really reflect any Edwards gains. New polling from ARG in Georgia and Maryland, for instance, considered two possible breakthrough states for the NC Senator, show Kerry's lead increasing in recent days. The latest Georgia matchup shows Kerry ahead by 10 points, 2 more than the previous survey, and well outside the MOE. It's similar in Maryland, where Kerry's 12 point lead shows a 5 point increase in four days. If Edwards plan is to close late, someone needs to tell him that Wednesday is too late.

SurveyUSA polls from the past few days show Kerry with comfortable margins in other key Super Tuesday states.

MD Kerry +25
RI Kerry +43
CA Kerry +35
OH Kerry +23
NY Kerry +36

Bear in mind that Edwards needs 62% of the remaining delegates to pass Kerry and snag the nomination. Everyplace he falls short of that number on Tuesday makes it higher later. Any guesses on where he might score 80 or 90 percent of the vote over the next month or so?