Zapping Zogby

Pollster John Zogby served up a tasty headline for his clients at Reuters and MSNBC today, as they touted his discovery that Howard Dean had accomplished a miracle rise in New Hampshire, pulling within the margin of error overnight.

Of course, attentive readers noted that Zogby cooked the data to get the headline. What really happened overnight was Zogby's decision to start assigning "undecided leaners" to various candidates. In other words, a poll respondent who's answere was something like "Oh, I don't know. Maybe Dean. I'm not sure." is, on Planet Zogby, a Dean supporter. Ultimately, that's OK, except that it's only explained in a footnote and it gives a result that's at odds with every other poll available. Dramatically at odds.

But, hey, that's Zogby, that's his decision, and his reputation rests on the results. I'm a bit taken aback, though, by the observations of some of his apologists. Atrios, for instance, offers the explanation that "Zogby's job this close to the election is to make his best guess, given the information, about what the outcome will be."

Really? That's his job? And here I though it was his job to provide the best data he could collect so that people like pundits and bloggers could use it to make their guesses. I mean, if it's his job, why isn't it part of his pitch?

Here's what Zogby says he does:

Mission:
"To Offer the Best Polling, Market Research, & Information Services Worldwide
Based on Accuracy & Detailed Strategic Information."

Zogby International is constantly searching, testing and measuring hypotheses
and principles on polling and public opinion research. Working with a panel of
psychologists, sociologists, computer experts, linguists, political scientists,
economists,and mathematicians, we explore every nuance in language and test
new methods in public opinion research. It is this investment in time and money
for research and development that makes us a leader in the public opinion field.

See? He left out that whole "best guess" part!

Maybe it's because, as Atrios further points out, "...obviously polls have an influence, to some degree, on the outcome. So, if this outlier of a result gets pushed, as Drudge is doing now, it could help give Dean the "comeback kid" momentum. Zogby can make a self-fulfilling prophesy."

That kind of puts all those "psychologists, sociologists, computer experts, linguists, political scientists, economists,and mathematicians" on a par with, oh, astrologers and phrenologists, doesn't it?

So maybe it's time for a new mission statement.

Zogby. You give us your money, we'll give you our best guess.