Looks like a terrific Tuesday...

...if you're a John Kerry supporter, that is. Here's how it looks to me.

Arizona Primary: 55 delegates

The last ARG poll had John Kerry neck and neck with Wes Clark for the lead in Arizona, but that was pre-NH. New Zogby numbers show a Kerry surge, which can only be helped by the endorsement of Congressman Ed Pastor, who provides a boost in the Hispanic community that could provide as much as half the vote in the Southwest primary.

Zogby has Kerry at 38%, with a 21 point lead over Clark. No other candidate is polling above threshold, although Dean is close at 12%.

I'm calling it for Kerry.

Delaware Primary: 15 delegates

ARG finally has some numbers for Deleware, home of Lieberman's Last Stand according to some observers.

Sit down, Joe.

Kerry 27
Lieberman 16
Dean 14
Edwards 9
Clark 8
Kucinich 1
Sharpton 1
Undecided 24

Kerry's surging, Dean's off the air, and Joe's rapidly becoming an embarrasment.

Call it for Kerry.

Missouri Primary: 74 delegates

The biggest prize, and the easiest call. A commanding lead in the polls (Zogby doesn't put anyone else above threshold), influential endorsements and the help of some key Gephardt operatives will give Kerry his strongest finish of the day.

Call it big for Kerry.


New Mexico Primary: 26 delegates

I haven't seen any good numbers from New Mexico. Dean's rumored to have a strong organization there, but then again, Dean was rumored to have a strong organization in Iowa and New Hampshire, too. Like all the other Feb. 3 states, Dean's off the air, and there's nothing in the news to indicate new strength for the Governor anywhere.

Meanwhile, Kerry's building support with the assistance of NM Lt. Governor Diane Denish and State House Speaker Ben Lujan and an endorsement from the state's leading daily, the Santa Fe New Mexican. Rep. Ed Pastor will be stumping New Mexico with the Senator, as well.

The crystal ball is a little cloudier here, but I'm going to call it for Kerry.

North Dakota Caucuses: 14 delegates

This has been one of the murkiest of all. Clark has been in the state and on the air. Dean claims some grassroots strength as well (big surprise, huh?). But the most reliable source is probably a poll from the Fargo-Moorehead Forum, which puts Kerry at 31%, a 16 point lead over General Clark, with everyone else trailing in low single digits.

I'll be watching for more news from North Dakota, but right now, call it for Kerry.

Oklahoma Primary: 40 delegates

This looks like Clark's stronghold, with the General holding the top spot in the ARG and Zogby surveys, and Kerry and Edwards slugging it out for second. Political Wire reports an Oklahoman poll, though, that gives Kerry a narrow lead. That's the source of my confidence that Kerry will have the edge on Edwards, but for the time being I'm going to hedge my bet on the winner.

Call it for Clark, with Kerry and Edwards getting delegate shares.

South Carolina Primary: 45 delegates

This is John Edwards' 'must win' market, by his own admission. Zogby has Edwards up by a single point, and the Clyburn endorsement could erase that. With Rep. Clyburn and Senator Hollings aboard and a solid debate performance by Senator Kerry, I'll go out on a limb here and predict an upset that may be a knockout blow for Edwards.

Call it for Kerry (but don't bet the rent money).