Looking forward

The one race at a time focus provided by Iowa and New Hampshire is a handy media hook, but from a campaign standpoint, it's purely artificial. Every campaign has been looking ahead, with some staking high hopes on a February 3rd breakthrough. That seemed to be a big part of the Lieberman strategy, but having moved his family to New Hampshire in order to kickstart his campaign, he's had little time and money to put into places like Oklahoma, where he was once perceived to be a potential player.

On the other hand, a Feb. 3 strategy may pay off handsomely for John Edwards, who has split his post-Iowa attention between New Hampshire and South Carolina. While more attention to NH might have improved his hand there, the political calculus seems to be in favor of a 3rd or 4th place finish in the northeast, where he was never expected to perform well, anyway, followed by a first in his regional backyard is better than, say, three 2nd places in a row.

Meanwhile, Dean has suspended advertising in several states to conserve cash for a big finish in New Hampshire, Clark is spending money on new staff to get operations started elsewhere after betting everything on New Hampshire, where it looks like he won't come away with very much, and Kerry has been able to disperse his Iowa operation far and wide (the staff here in Washington was doubled with the arrival of a veteran team from Iowa), since his NH organization was already firmly developed.

While the campaigns move their doers and dollars around, the voters are moving, too, and as a Kerry supporter, I've got to like the direction.

New polling from a couple of key Feb. 3 states reflects the trend. Although there' still a substantial undecided, Kerry's made a come from behind move to first in Arizona, according to these numbers from the Arizona Republic:

Kerry 19
Clark 17
Dean 14
Edwards 9
Lieberman 6

In South Carolina, the Edwards strategy seems to be working, as the Senator holds a lead in a new ARG survey, but Kerry is making a strong run in the southern state, quadrupling his support from previous polls. The numbers now:

Edwards 21
Kerry 17
Sharpton 15
Clark 14
Dean 9
Lieberman 5

A New Hampshire win can only be helpful to Kerry's momentum, and a South Carolina victory for the 'Massachusetts liberal' could be the key to a string of victories as the race goes forward.