The GlobeSuffolkARGZogbyFOXHeraldGallup Poll

I give up. The numbers are coming in too fast and furious to list each of the seven New Hampshire polls I've been watching on an individual basis, so here's the official Upper Left poll, an average them all. Interestingly, it comes out closest to the Suffolk University survey, which may or may not mean that that's the only one you need. It hits the average for the top two dead on, though. The poll most out of step with the others is Zogby, the only one with Dean within single digits of the lead.

Here's the Upper Left Average:

Kerry 36
Dean 20
Clark 12
Edwards 11

So, what do I think will happen? Knowing that you're all on the edge of your seats waiting for my predictions, I won't make you wait any longer (although I may change my mind later, so don't get too far away...)

I can't see things getting anything but better for Kerry over the next couple of days. While the notion of organization was given big play in Iowa because of the nature of caucus politics, it's really no less important in New Hampshire, where election day turnout efforts are a big key to success. Knowing who's in charge of Team Kerry's ground game, I'd imagine that every available Kerry vote has been tagged for turnout.

There's got to be a bottom end to Dean's hard support, and I'd suspect it's somewhere around the Upper Left Average number. He's pouring a ton of cash into late TV and has gone hard negative against Kerry on the stump. That should push him a little over his absolute base.

Wes Clark just doesn't seem to be able to provide a compelling justification for being in this race. Democratic primary votes aren't among those who believe the D's are 'weak on defense,' so he's ended up spinning his wheels trying to convince people who don't need convincing. He's gonna get hurt on Tuesday, and I'm not convinced Feb. 3 offers a comeback opportunity.

I think John Edwards is being underestimated by the polls because I think he's got a bunch of voters sitting in the undecided column. He's been splitting his time between NH and South Carolina, probably a sound strategic decision, but ultimately I think more people will break his way than some expect.

So, my prediction?

Kerry 40
Dean 25
Edwards 15
Clark 10

In a rational world, Joe Lieberman and Wes Clark get out of this thing on Wednesday, but that's a prediction I'm not about to make.