Safe at home

There's been a lot of buzz about who, if anybody, is safer with the capture of Saddam Hussein. I tend to agree that the American people aren't tangibly safer than they were when he was hiding in his hole, but I think a lot of folks feel safer, so telling them they aren't probably reflects a lack of political wisdom. The increased safety, for Americans and the world in general, came when Saddam was deposed, not when he was captured.

I think there are some folks who are safer, though. Like the Americans who feel safer in their homes, my feeling about it is pretty subjective, but I do think it's likely that there are some Iraqis whose safety was enhanced by the capture, since it could cause some Saddam loyalists to give up the fight, and it's possible that some GIs are safer for the same reason. That's a good thing, and not a small thing.

What's got Democratic shorts in a knot, though, if we're going to be honest about this, is concern that the capture might make Bush's re-election bid safer, or the campaigns of anti-war Democrats riskier. Personally, I think the impact either way will be marginal over time, since the kind of bump that comes with a positive news cycle tends to slip away with the next negative news cycle, and I expect plenty of both between now and November '04.

There is a little harder evidence, though, to support my thoughts on the election impact than my suspicions about anyone's relative safety. The Vancouver Columbian offers a look at the impact on two anti-war Democrats from the upper left - Senator Patty Murray and Rep. Brian Baird, through the eyes of pollster Stuart Elway.

Elway told the paper ""I don't think it (Saddam's capture) will have any long-term political effect."

Why?

"We just did a poll in this state and it's pretty divided on the war," Elway said. "It's split sharply down party lines," and the swing voters in Washington were just about evenly divided.

And that's it, really. The anti-war crowd is singularly unimpressed by the Saddam capture, the pro-war bunch is elated and most folks don't know what to think. The election will turn on other issues - in the northwest, it looks like jobs, jobs, jobs.