New numbers for the new year

ARG has released a new tracking poll in New Hampshire, and Dean's down 8 points, to 37, compared to their December 17 survey. It's the only move that's outside the 4% +/- for the previous poll.

Kerry's down one, to 19%, but still closes the gap by 7. The other number worth noting is Wes Clark, who moves back into double digits (but still short of the delegate threshold) with a 4 point climb to 12. The undecideds are up 3, as well, to 18. It's hard to read a trend for Kerry, Clark or the unknowns, though, because their changes are all within the MOE.

The December 17 numbers showed a sharp climb in Dean's unfavorable ratings, and it looks like that's beginning to show up in voter preferences. Kerry's still not where he needs to be, but an 18 point gap is a lot easier to close than a 25 point gap, and things are headed in the right direction for now.

Update: Since I blogged this, the latest three day track is up at the ARG site. Kerry gives up a point to Gep, who moves to 5, but that's insignificant given the MOE. Everything else holds. Dean and Kerry are still the only candidates polling above the 15% delegate threshold.