But the polls!

I'm as obsessive about tracking every movement of every point in every poll as anyone, I suppose, but it's important to keep these things in perspective. About this time in 1992, those of us who were working for other campaigns (like Joe Trippi, I was a Brown guy back then) were pretty dismissive of the former Governor of a small state who was hovering around 2% in New Hampshire. Things move fast in politics, and faster in those early primary/caucus states than in most places.

Fox News isn't one of my typical sources for factual reporting, but once in a while they do say something that's true, and these data points are worth keeping in mind...

"In 2000, a Los Angeles Times poll two months before the New Hampshire Republican primary put Bush ahead of Arizona Sen. John McCain 44 to 36 percent. McCain trounced Bush by nearly 20 points.

A New Hampshire poll three months before the Democratic primary showed former Sen. Bill Bradley with 45 percent, ahead of former Vice President Al Gore's 41 percent. Gore fought back to win.

Two months before New Hampshire's 1996 Republican primary, Sen. Bob Dole was leading 27-17 over commentator Pat Buchanan. Dole lost to Buchanan by one point.

Two months before the 1984 Democratic primary, former Vice President Walter Mondale (search) was at 46 percent and then-Sen. Gary Hart was at 8 percent. Hart beat Mondale by 10 points."

I know it sounds trite, but it's still true - the only poll that counts is taken in the voting booth on election day.