At last, a poll to play with. Via Goldy
According to the poll of 609 registered voters conducted by SurveyUSA, Reichert leads Burner 54% to 41% with only 6% undecided.
As he points out, the ridiculously small undecided reflects one of the flaws in SurveyUSA's robo-polling methodology. CoolAqua offers a few more cautionary points on methodology and MOE. Taegan Goddard
has a summary of the report, including these "Key findings…" (emphasis mine)
"Reichert leads by 21 points among men and by 6 points among women. Reichert gets 91% of Republican votes. Burner gets 79% of Democrat votes. 14% of registered Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican Reichert. Independents favor Reichert by 13 points…"
Happily, any "registered Democrats" planning to vote for Dave Reichert don't actually vote in the 8th District, or in the State of Washington, for that matter, for we (alas) do not have partisan registration in the upper left. A small point? Maybe, but a marker, I think, for a certain kind of sloppiness that becomes yet another red flag when analyzing SurveyUSA results.
Just the same, the numbers actually look pretty good for Darcy. The mere fact that Seattle TV is commissioning polls in the race raises her visibility, and right now, for Darcy it's all about visibility.
(I wish they'd poll name recognition alongside preference at this point. After all, the Sheriff who faced down the Green River Killer mano a mano in an encounter so harrowing that it turned his helmet of hair snow white (something like that, right?) is a pretty well known guy. The mom from Microsoft? Not so much, I imagine.)
54% offers little solace to Reichert. If I were spinning for him, I'd be looking for flaws, too, I think. While "13% lead" is momentarily impressive, the glow begins to fade in the light of a substantial MOE. A lead is a lead, of course, but there's not much mileage for an incumbent in one so slight. Conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will lose seats this year, and there's doubtless a triage system underway, and 54% is, at best, at the low edge of respectability. Maybe below the line when the NRCC cuts its losses.
Reichert's been quite open, really, about his reliance on his caucus for his legislative marching orders and political strategy, and he's been a loyal trooper. It'll be worth watching how they pay him back over the next few weeks.
Or how they don't.