OK, maybe it was this.

First BC04 put their morally reprehensible spin on the Bin Laden tape...

A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."

He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.

...and then the Sunday pundits dutifully lined up behind it. By midday Sunday, there was a concensus forming that OBL gave a big boost to GWB. As a result, there's a new wave of nervousness in some corners of the Kerry camp. But Bushco is wrong, the pundits are wrong, and by now we should all know better than to listen to any of them.

Political Wire offers some encouragement from a reliable Democratic source...

A Democracy Corps poll shows the release of the Osama bin Laden video is more likely -- by 46% to 36% -- to remind people that bin Laden hasn't been caught and remains a threat to the United States rather than give them positive feelings about President Bush as a fighter of terrorism.

...and Billmon's back with this note from Faux News' favorite pollster...

"While it has been said too many times to count, this race remains too-close-to-call with the outcome dependent on several key swing states," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "With less than two days to go, it is likely that any further last minute events will have little impact. However, it can be said the recent news of a bin Laden tape, while not necessarily hurting the incumbent, has clearly not helped him hold off Sen. Kerry."

If they can't keep Gorman on message, they're in bigger trouble than I might have thought.

If I were the kind of guy to say I told you so....well, I guess I am...