Saturday, September 04, 2004

Oh dear.

The panic people are about to have a field day, I suppose. First Time, now Newsweek, have post-RNC polls reflecting a significant bounce for Bush. They're worth what they're worth, but I'm not at all sure what that might be, exactly. First of all, they're not the only numbers out there, and some of the others paint a somewhat different picture. At Corrente, the farmer offers these, for instance...

ZOGBY - Zogby America Poll. Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2004.
"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?"

Among likely voters nationwide:
8/30 - 9/2/04
deserves reelection - 46%
someone new - 48%
unsure - 6%
American Research Group Poll. Aug. 30-Sept. 1, 2004.
"If the election for president were being held between George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, for whom would you vote: Bush or Kerry?"

Among registered voters:
polled 8/30 - 9/1/04
Bush - 46%
Kerry - 48%
unsure - 6%
Even when they look better for Kerry, though, I'm skeptical of national polling. Bottom line? It isn't a national election. Over the next few days, we'll see new polling from the battlegrounds that will effectively measure the convention bounce and the Kerry response, which will tell us where this thing is really at.

Meanwhile, we know we've got to do what we've known we've had to do all along.

Work hard.

Fight back.

And panic? Still unproductive.

So don't.

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