Wednesday, September 08, 2004

More poll pondering...

...and of course, I turn first to Ruy Teixeira for a look inside the new Gallup numbers.
Prior to the Republican convention, Kerry had a one point lead among RVs (47-46) in the battleground states. After the Republican convention, now that battleground voters have had a chance to take a closer look at what Bush and his party really stand for, Kerry leads by 5 in these same states (50-45)! Note that Kerry gained three points among battleground voters, while Bush actually got a negative one point bounce.
The Gallup poll's internals also show that Kerry continues to lead among independents (49-46) and that both parties' partisans are equally polarized for their respetive candidates (90-7)...
Still not satisfied? Here's Zogby.
This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush.The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call.
Feeling better yet?

Update: I've deleted the last line of the Zogby quote. As was pointed out in a comment, Zogby has issued a correction. Tt was transparently illogical, as I should have noticed. No, Kerry can't win with 264 electoral votes. It's also completely inessential to the point, which is that after a month that found the Kerry campaign having to conserve cash while fighting off one of the most slanderous attacks in modern American politics, winding up with the Republican Convention, Kerry's still in the ring, slightly ahead on points, and fighting toe to toe.

There are some rounds still to go, and a lot of work to be done, but the new is still pretty darn good for our side.

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