Sunday, September 05, 2004

Another Poll-Pondering Post

While the panic people tear their hair out screaming "11 points! The sky is falling!" it's good to get a little perspective, which the LA Times kindly provides...
The first poll released after the convention, conducted by Time magazine, found that 52% of likely voters said they intended to vote for Bush, against 41% for Kerry — the widest lead for Bush in months. A similar poll conducted by the magazine before the convention had Bush barely ahead of Kerry in a statistical dead heat, 46% to 44%. The polls have a 4-point margin of error in either direction.
That's 52% for Bush during the convention, as opposed to 46% before. A six point, not an eleven point, bump. In a poll with a ± of four points.

It's not nothing, but it's not all that, either.

And it really doesn't change much of anything. What we have to do is pretty much what we've had to do all along. Work hard. Fight back.

More valuable perspective comes via DemFromCT over at Kos.
There's much more to come in the news. There may be scandals that break in time for the election. Things that no one can control may change the dynamic, but until the debates, this seems to be where we are. And that doesn't mean Bush wins. But it doesn't mean Kerry's the next President unless a tremendous amount of hard work, GOTV, etc. is put in place. If you thought you weren't needed, get rid of that idea. Do what you can where you can. Every vote counts. And it seems more useful to me than giving interviews.
More useful than panic, too, IMNSHO...

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