Amen.

It behooves all of us, and especially the panic people, to spend a little time with Ruy Teixeira over at Donkey Rising before passing judgement on any poll. First of all, he knows more about the business of interpreting the infernal things than most of us ever hope to. As, maybe more, importantly, he's got one of the most consistently level heads in the Democratic Party.


Today, under the heading Could Everyone Please Just Calm Down Out There? he offers some insight into the new Time and Newsweek polls that have ruffled feathers all over the lefty blogosphere. A couple key points...

So why do Newsweek and Time insist on doing their bounce polls wrong so they're almost guaranteed to get misleading results? Simple: their publication schedule. They've got to have to data in time to dump it into their print publication. If they waited to do it right the poll would be too old to put in their magazine the subsequent week.

This is especially egregious since even a poll conducted entirely after the convention needs to be viewed with caution. As Charlie Cook points out:

A week or 10 days after the GOP convention, the electorate should have stopped bouncing and settled back down enough for horse race poll results to once again have some real meaning.

and

Aside from the timing, there are other reasons to be skeptical of the Newsweek poll. As has been widely reported in various blogs, the partisan distribution of the RVs in the Newsweek poll is quite startling: 38 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 31 percent independent. This 7 point lead for the GOP on party ID does not comport well with other data on partisan distribution this campaign season--which have consistently shown the Democrats leading by at least several points--and can't be blamed on a likely voter screen since there was none.

and a reminder.

It's still a long time 'til election day. People should resist the urge to push the panic button...

Remember this, too.

Every ounce of your energy will be needed to beat Bush, snatch back the Senate and recapture the House. If you've got any time or attention left after all that, there must be a legislature near you in need of another D or two or maybe a Governor's mansion in need of some attention.

Surely something.

No time to waste on distraction, no energy to spend on despair.

Work hard, fight back, don't panic.

And if you haven't checked in with Ruy, don't even read the damn polls.