From the Pondering the Polls file...

While the punditocracy waits breathlessly for the latest Zogby press release every day, they occupy their idle hours assuring the world that the data that they will spend the rest of the day talking about really doesn't tell us anything.

This, after all, is Iowa, a caucus state, where ground organization, geographic distribution and a variety of other factors can make the ablest reader of statistical tea leaves look like a charlatan come the day after Iowans decide.

Still, the polls are what we have to work with. They do indicate trends, and keep multiple all news networks on the air. They're not everything you need to know, but they're something, anyway.

In fact, they're more than most people realize. While the raw horse race numbers may be the most widely reported information from the polls, there's a lot to be learned by digging a level or two deeper. Here are a few gems mined from the latest Zogby data.

A caucus room is one of the places where you get a meaningful second choice, and second choices may have more to do with final outcomes than raw voter preference.

Here's the second choice numbers now (and I like 'em!):

Kerry..........24
Dean..........16
Edwards.....16
Gephardt....15

Some folks still haven't made up their minds, and some may not until they get to the caucus room and see how their neighbors feel, but here's how the undecideds are leaning today:

Gephardt...16
Kerry.........13
Dean.........12
Edwards....11

Obviously, there are still undecideds among the undecideds. Their final decision may well be just on of those gut level "which guy do I like" kind of things. That's why favorability ratings are worth looking at, and here they are:

Kerry..........80
Gephardt...75
Edwards....72
Dean..........67

You may have noticed that this all looks very good for the current Iowa frontrunner, John Kerry. The reason may be the remarkable demographic spread of his support.
According to Zogby, "Kerry leads among Democrats, young and old voters, men and women, liberals and moderates, and those who say they are 'definitely voting' on Monday."

Didn't somebody say something about an Iowa surprise?